The End Of The World As We Know It

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Mayan Dresden Codex
Credit:  FAMSI

Myth: The Mayan Calendar predicts the end of the world December 23, 2012.
Fact: In the Mayan Long Count, 144,000 days make up a baktun, and the 13th baktun since the calendar began ends on December 23 (or maybe the 21st), 2012.  Current Mayan scholars believe that the Mayans predicted a great celebration at the end of the 13th baktun.  Since the Mayans also made predictions for events which were to occur after the 13th baktun, the ideal that they believed the world would end in 2012 doesn’t follow.  7th century Mayan astronomers at Tortuguero used a Long Count with 20 baktuns, placing the end of the cycle about 2765 years in the future from 2012.  The Mayan calendar was supposed to be a series of repeating cycles.

Of Scientific Interest:  It is true that the Mayan calendar is viciously accurate.  The Mayans gave the length of a lunar month as 29.5302 days; our modern values give it as 29.53059 days.  They gave the Venus orbital period as 584 days; and the modern answer is 583.92 days.

Myth: The quatrains of Nostradamus predict the end of the world in 2012.
Fact: In the preface of the original book of predictions by Nostradamus,  it claims they are valid until the year 3797 A.D.  No writing credited to Nostradamus dates the end of the world.

Myth: The Tiburtine Sibyl predicts the end of the world in 2012.
Fact: While the Tiburtine Sibyl does talk about the end of the world, it does not mention the year 2012.  It states the end of the world will be after the advent (in the world’s 9th age) of a “final emperor”, who then gives way to the Antichrist.

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Triagrams of the Taoist bagua

Myth: The I Ching predicts the end of the world on December 21, 2012.
Fact: This came about by applying a numerological graph created in the 1970s to a translation of the I Ching (translation by the graph’s creator).  The author of the theory first stated the “end” would occur in November of 2012, but the date was changed to coincide with the supposed “end” of the Mayan calendar.  The first edition of the author’s book actually only mentions the year 2012 twice, believing that our end was being “programed into our unconsciousness”.  A later version of the same book (printed in 1993) stresses the 2012 date repeatedly.  The author used the bombing date of Hiroshima to calibrate the date for the end of the world for November, 2012, but doesn’t have an historically significant event to coincide with the December date when the same “science” is applied.  According to his own theory, something vastly significant should have happened.  Although people have argued that the November date is “close enough” to the December date to make it accurate, under science that “close enough” statement is purely nonsense.  In the tiny time frame referenced, science would nail it to the nanosecond (especially using computers, as the theory’s author does).

The I Ching inself is considered to be an ethical and philosophical work.  It is very ancient; the earliest version verified is no later than 223 B.C.E.  But, before you believe that anything is based on any examination of the text of the I Ching, realize that the earliest verified written text (on bamboo leaves) is not complete.   If it’s author(s) intended it to be used for divination, all possibility for that has been lost through time.

Myth: The Bible Code predicts the end of the world on December 23, 2012.
Fact: The Bible Code predicted the end of the world in 2006, not 2012.

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The constellation of Sagittarius
Credit:  Eoghanacht

Myth: The world will end December 23, 2012 because of the galactic alignment.
Fact: You should already know the answer to this one, but here goes:  The galactic alignment which is supposed to flop the polarity of the Earth, creating the end of the world, comes around every year on the winter solstice, when the Earth, sun, and the galactic equator line up.  The winter solstice of 2012 will be in the constellation of Sagittarius, which happens to appear as the constellation bisected by the galactic equator when seen from Earth.  Still with me?  Because of the wobble in the Earth’s axis as it spins, about every 2160 years the constellation in which the equinox occurs changes.  This is a new astrological age, like the “Age of Aquarius”.  Every 26,000 years the equinoxes make one full circuit around the ecliptic.  Therefore, every 26,000 years the winter solstice is in the constellation of Sagittarius.  In 2012, this coincides with the “end” of the Mayan calendar.  The most precise convergence for the “Age of Sagittarius” has already happened, by the way.  It happened in 1998.

Almost every month there is a new prediction by someone for the end of the world.  For the last 5,000 years (since we’ve been keeping track of doomsday predictions), every prediction has been wrong.  Odds are pretty good that this prediction will be wrong, too.  Granted, the world will end someday; it has to.  I personally doubt it will be on December 21 or 23, 2012.

If you’re interested in learning more about the Mayans, this is a very interesting website.  They are truly worth reading about.

34 Comments so far

  1. itwasntme on September 16th, 2009

    Aw shucks! I was looking forward to watching the end of the world! Now I’ll have to buy everybody Christmas presents after all. I was hoping to save that money for my retirement, too…

  2. JASSO on September 16th, 2009

    What is more interesting is how they could make sucha a math calculation, what kind of resources they possessed, and mostly it shows their intellectual capacity. Nevertheless Why, after their achievements whe know too little about the end of his civilization.

  3. Charles K on September 16th, 2009

    Given how amazing Mayan culture is, not only their Calendar but their work in Mathematics, Writing, Metallurgy, Astronomy, etc., I find it quite sad that their entire culture is marred by conspiracy theorists thirst for blood.

  4. Tom on September 16th, 2009

    All I have to say is: :mrgreen:

  5. Victoria on September 16th, 2009

    Nice to see the Mayan “end of the world” prophesy hysteria debunked in such a scholarly manner!

  6. Marian on September 16th, 2009

    I hope everyone takes time to read up on the Mayans; there are so many incredible things known about them. For instance, the Mayans built the largest pyramid (largest by volume) in the world. That’s the Great Pyramid of Cholula. It’s also the largest monument in the world.

    Thanks for the smile, Tom, and the pat on the back, Victoria. I enjoyed writing this; I hope everyone enjoys reading it.

  7. Astroprof on September 16th, 2009

    Good job. I am not sure why so many of the conspiracy folk have jumped on the 2012 thing. Sadly, the internet seems to be an ideal medium to expound on this sort of nuttiness.

    I tell my students that if I had a dollar for every time that I have heard that the world is going to come to and end (and didn’t), then I’d be rolling in money.

  8. JA on September 16th, 2009

    Darn it! I wasn’t going to buy Christmas presents that year, now I have to.

  9. ed on Sept.16 on September 16th, 2009

    dont include the Bible in your myths The Bible states that only God knows when the end willcome.
    you should get ready now anyway

  10. Carrie on September 16th, 2009

    Well, Tom…I guess I got my answer!!! ;-)

  11. Dolores Hankins on September 16th, 2009

    I have read and studied for a good number of years about the Mayan Calender and also how advanced their culture really was. There has always been a doubt about the end of the world. I do not think that the culture would be predicting the end and then talking about the celebrations after the 2012 date in “November or December”, and you are correct about the “science fanatics” would have it down to the correct nanosecond. Thanks for writing about this subject. We need not only to know what the scientists are saying, but also the others. Keep it up Marian, the article was excellent.

  12. Marian on September 16th, 2009

    What was your question, Carrie?

    Ed, I don’t believe I mention the bible anywhere in this post. Perhaps I’m mistaken and it slipped in without my knowledge…

  13. Dwight Decker on September 16th, 2009

    I wonder if a Prophet of Doom will take bets? I’m thinking that if the Prophet of Doom says the world will end next Thursday, I’ll offer to bet him a thousand dollars that it won’t. If the world’s still here next Friday, I collect. If the Prophet of Doom was correct… well, neither of us will still be around for me to pay up. But if the Prophet of Doom refuses to take the bet, there must be some smidgeon of doubt and he isn’t so confident after all.

  14. Jim Addison on September 16th, 2009

    Nice post, although the nutty folks who believe in this sort of nonsense will never be convinced – even when we enter 2013 relatively unscathed (from a planetary perspective), they will insist that some minor misinterpretation corrupted the data, and immediately reset the date and resume the doomsaying.

    Dwight ~ Perhaps the Prophet is simply too busy making preparations to waste time making a wager he cannot possibly collect?

    ;-)

  15. Frank on September 16th, 2009

    really interesting. thanks a lot

  16. Charles S. Carter Jr. on September 16th, 2009

    If it’s all the same to you I think I’ll pack my bags just in case!

  17. Marian on September 17th, 2009

    Why, sure, Charles! No problem… but, er… where are you packing your bags FOR?

  18. chris on September 17th, 2009

    The Mayans knowledge of our galactic precession and alignment with the center of the milky way is a testament and of great significance to the end date. A Great Celebration is ahead for many. A higher state of consciousness for those living the positive. Dooms day for those living within negative frequency caused by collective unconsciousness. TEOTWAWKI

  19. Carrie on September 17th, 2009

    Marian, I had sent Tom an e-mail asking what his thoughts were on the 2012 theory by the Mayans. I watch The History Channel a lot and I imagine that the shows are causing some hysteria…my hubby happens to really think that our world is going to change. I’m not sure what to think.

  20. Sandman on September 17th, 2009

    Before anyone goes DEBUNKING this or that theory, or this or that system, remember the basic scientific rules: This is a theory.

    FACT : Mayans have a good system of mathematics (and astronomy, etc.)
    FACT : Mayan doomsdays have been debunked.
    FACT : Doomsdays are made by MODERN PEOPLE, NOT MAYANS!

    So until a good live blue-blooded Mayan comes up to me and says it ends in this or that year, I won’t believe that the Mayan System has been FULLY UNDERSTOOD.

    (That also goes for all the good archaelogical discoveries we dug up. Sumerians, Alexandrian etc.)

  21. The Wiseman on September 17th, 2009

    Cudoos for a cogent and believable discussion of a complex (and growing more important) subject!

    Tom, not to question the veracity and integrity of modern Mayans (especially the knowlegeable Mayan guides found onsite at Mayan ruins), but they really are not the experts here – the experts of the Mayan calendar are all dead, as are the ancient Aztec experts. The fact is that no recognized academic authority knows for sure, why the ancient Mayans suddenly walked away from all that architecture about the time of the European Crusades, leaving entire cities and complex temples empty forever. Because of this lack of basic information on Mayan culture, I question the explanations of modern Mayans when applied to ancient Mayan prophecies – the famous Mayan calendar is not in the genes, but the intellect, and belongs not to modern Mayans, but to the Ages. It is what it is.
    Tom, you failed to mention the Bible here; that’s unfortunate because Matthew 24 & 25 and Luke 22 correlate rather chillingly with the many Doomsday prophecies including the Mayan calendar, that focus on Winter Solstice 2012. Most folks focus on the Bible’s “Book of Revelation” when they discuss “End Times”; that’s unfortunate because “Revelation” was written by John the Apostle many years after he had walked with Jesus, and concerns prophesies given to John himself, while the prophetic sayings of Matthew 24/25 and Luke 22 are direct quotes from Jesus Himself – “on site” at the time they were given, as it were – sayings which I consider to be more reliable than John’s.
    As to Doomsday, it WILL come, whether or not on 12/21/2012 we must wait and see; however, you must admit that the times and seasons are adding up to a “perfect storm” of trouble at that time:
    1. The aforesaid Mayan Prophecy;
    2. Peak of the 11.1 year Solar Sunspot cycle;
    3. Galactic Alignment (a cross in the stars that can be interpreted as “The Sign of the Son of Man” returning – see Matthew 24);
    4. I Ching analysis indicating Winter Solstice 2012;
    5. Various Oracles, soothsayers etc. most of which are bogus;
    6. Accelerated global warming – not only on Earth, but also simultaneously on Mercury, Venus, Mars and Jupiter.
    7. LAST BUT NOT LEAST: A highly-devisive national presidential election 11/2012 that promises to be worse that the Vietnam-era elections, an event that will leave at least half of America extremely angry with the other half. Then, after a six-week ramp up, a hysterical world stumbles into the prophetic Winter Solstice 2012. It’s gonna be a night to remember, boys & girls!

  22. Tom on September 17th, 2009

    The Wiseman – this excellent work is the work of Marian and not me. Just want to give credit where it is due. :)

    Tom

  23. Sam Adartson on September 17th, 2009

    “And I beheld when he had opened the sixth seal, and, lo, there was a great earthquake; and the sun became black as sackcloth of hair, and the moon became as blood; And the stars of heaven fell unto the earth, even as a fig tree casteth her untimely figs, when she is shaken of a mighty wind. And the heaven departed as a scroll when it is rolled together; and every mountain and island were moved out of their places.” Revelation 6:12-14

    “And the second angel sounded, and as it were a great mountain burning with fire was cast into the sea…” Revelations 7:8

    This passage is an unbelievably accurate description of a large meteor strike (perhaps multiple strikes) upon the earth. For those of you who have not seen the movie “Deep Impact”, watch it; for those who have, revisit the scene where the meteor strikes the Atlantic ocean. The CGI representation is very good. The burning mountain is cast into the sea. The atmosphere is blasted away from the point of impact “as a scroll.” The fallout of ejecta would form an umbrella of luminous, molten particulates, much like the shape of a heavily laden fig tree.
    Now consider that this description was written some 2,000 years ago; before knowledge that we live on a planet, before knowledge of extra-terrestrial objects.
    Who is to say WHEN this will happen. But if this depiction is right, we won’t have time to reflect and argue about it!

  24. Marian Ware on September 17th, 2009

    You know, there’s one very big reason why I didn’t include the bible in the list of myths, and I would think all the people here quoting the bible would be aware of it: The bible itself says that no man will know when the world ends. That’s as in, NO BODY. Not the Mayans. Not the doomsayers. Not the prophets. Not the scientists. Not the Christians. Not the Muslims. Not the Jews. NO BODY.

    If you take parts of the bible as accurate literally, you must take all of it as accurate literally. As soon as someone professes to “know” when the “end” will come by what the bible says, I always figure they just knocked that particular date out of the running, by their own philosophy.

    Any discussion on when the world will end based on bible text will always end with that one little statement. No one will know when the end comes.

    Besides that, the text of the bible is argued in web sites devoted to that issue.

  25. meltedface on September 17th, 2009

    when your done with your calender does it mean the world ends? No you just start over with a new calendar…. or clock.. it just a cycle

  26. Patrick on September 17th, 2009

    Thanks for clearing all those facts!

    I look forward to Christmas 2012!

  27. Near The End? « A View From The West on September 18th, 2009

    [...] , Science Leave a Comment Tom’s Astronomy Blog has a very good piece about how The End Of The World As We Know It is not really upon us, despite what you may have heard recently about 2012 and the Mayan [...]

  28. Mark D. on September 20th, 2009

    Some where back there Ed said:dont include the Bible in your myths The Bible states that only God knows when the end willcome.
    you should get ready now anyway

    This was The same sort of thing I was going to say, there was no direct mention of the Bible, but the Bible code which I believe some how pikes anagrams out of Bible text.

    Only God knows when the end will happen.

  29. Marian on September 21st, 2009

    Mark – there were two books written, “The Bible Code”, and “The Bible Code II”. What it basically says is that there were messages encoded into the Torah (written in the original Hebrew) by aliens of benevolent intent. When the Hebrew Torah is placed on a graph (with no spaces, onelongstreamofletters so it looks like that) and a computer program is applied to it, the Torah is said to predict events in the future.

    You are absolutely correct in that the Bible says only God will know. It’s very plainly stated; and it’s not open to interpretation at all.

  30. Al on October 2nd, 2009

    The etymology of the word world is simply man’s view. Worlds come to an end all the time just as the Mayan world met its demise.
    It would be wise to put all of this into context and to neglect the original meaning of the word is suspect.

    Now if you are talking about the end of the planet or most organic life on the planet that’s entirely different. Personally, I would love to see an end to civilization in a hurry!

  31. Vance on October 6th, 2009

    Dwight, I’d have to make that bet (LOL)with the Prophet of Doom!

  32. oddy on November 12th, 2009

    I dont know if the world will end in 2012 or not and i dont wont it to but why did they predict the world woould end on the 21/23 of dec. 2012 and not dec. 22 of 2012? But i think nobody truly knows when the world will end unless god told a predicter somehow and its a waring to earth. and theres a 1/99999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999.99999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999999 chance of that happening

  33. JohannesDough on December 8th, 2009

    Why does everyone keep acting like the world is just going to up and end one day? What comes next? Does it even matter?
    I think it is wise to keep in mind that throughout the entire span of (known) human history, our sun has never crossed the gravitational plane that we call the galactic equator. There is no way of knowing what exactly will happen, but archaeologists have confirmed that the earth has gone through several pole shifts since the ice caps formed. If pole shift is possible, the gravitational forces at the galactic plane are likely set it off. The aftermath of a pole shift can be summed up in one word: chaos
    Once people begin believing in it, we can start planning for it, so that just in case it really does happen, we won’t be playing should’ves.

  34. H Khan on December 13th, 2009

    The world will not end because of earthquakes, tsunami, meteor strike, nuclear war, supernova, or any other natural or man made disaster. End will not happen on any arbitrary date like December 2012. The end of the universe has been designed into the laws of the universe by the creator. The contraction of the universe will commence the beginning of the end which will last for thousands and possibly millions of years. We will however be gone far before that time removed from the dying universe.

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